KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

52%

51%

41%

12%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

ICONNO 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.20u · ICON −55.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	54.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	91.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	87.0%	—	—	72.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	43.3%	88.6%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	91.8%	91.5%	36.9%	—	68.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	79.5%	96.7%	44.9%	—	59.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	62.0%	73.6%	66.3%	—	51.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	33.0%	66.3%	76.4%	—	57.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.8%	45.8%	76.2%	—	51.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	26.0%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	26.9%	66.2%	53.5%	—	52.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	19.6%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	24.4%	23.0%	51.8%	—	52.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	27.6%	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	27.9%	47.1%	40.4%	—	40.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	20.4%	58.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	38.8%	58.2%	39.8%	18.3%	34.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	22.0%	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	23.0%	72.7%	23.0%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	15.4%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	14.0%	71.0%	10.0%	13.4%	23.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	10.8%	59.5%	5.8%	—	17.5%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	11.2%	68.0%	5.2%	12.4%	16.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	8.7%	66.3%	3.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	13.4%	71.6%	3.5%	8.9%	12.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	15.6%	72.4%	5.4%	—	18.2%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	22.2%	68.2%	14.6%	10.8%	17.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	24.8%	67.5%	9.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	18.1%	69.7%	5.2%	17.1%	7.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	37.0%	66.1%	7.9%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	65.7°F	2.9°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	63.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	63.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	62.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	62.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
ICON	12%	59.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗