KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.2¢Risks 3.60u

WN2NO 92.8¢Risks 46.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.40u · WN2 −46.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	47.9%	6.0%	1.6%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	47.9%	6.0%	1.6%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	47.9%	6.0%	1.6%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	47.9%	6.0%	1.6%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	47.9%	6.0%	1.6%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	47.9%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	47.9%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	47.9%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	37.6%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.0%	4.4%	14.2%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.7%	4.4%	14.2%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.7%	4.4%	14.2%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	4.6%	5.9%	1.7%	4.4%	14.2%
2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	1.7%	1.5%	14.2%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	1.7%	1.5%	14.2%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	1.7%	1.5%	14.2%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	1.7%	1.5%	14.2%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	1.7%	1.5%	14.2%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	4.7%	4.9%	0.2%	1.5%	14.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	71.1°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	68.9°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	69.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	64.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗