KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.2¢Risks 3.60u

WN2NO 92.8¢Risks 46.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.40u · WN2 −46.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	15.3%	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	9.3%	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	9.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	10.5%	10.2%	0.1%	—	1.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.7%	17.9%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	1.3%	0.7%	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	1.1%	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	71.1°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	68.9°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	69.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	64.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗