KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 04 · 06:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

61%

40%

32%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

ICONNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.05u · ICON −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T15:18:15+00:00	80.2%	54.7%	52.1%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	80.2%	54.7%	52.1%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	80.2%	54.7%	52.1%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	80.2%	54.7%	52.1%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	80.2%	54.7%	52.1%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	80.2%	54.7%	52.1%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	82.1%	54.7%	52.1%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	82.1%	54.7%	52.1%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	82.1%	54.7%	52.1%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	82.1%	54.7%	52.1%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	82.1%	54.7%	52.1%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	82.1%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	82.1%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	82.1%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	56.4%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	83.3%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	81.4%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	81.4%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	81.4%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	81.4%	56.0%	87.6%	49.1%	40.0%
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	81.4%	56.0%	87.6%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	85.0%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	85.0%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	85.0%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	85.0%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	85.0%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	88.4%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	88.4%	49.0%	40.0%
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	78.0%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	71.8%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	71.8%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	71.8%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	71.8%	54.8%	89.1%	49.0%	27.6%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	71.8%	54.8%	89.1%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	71.8%	51.2%	86.5%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	71.8%	51.2%	86.5%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	71.8%	51.2%	86.5%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	73.5%	51.2%	86.5%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	73.5%	51.2%	86.5%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-03T14:55:00+00:00	79.4%	43.8%	76.5%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	79.4%	42.6%	76.5%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	79.4%	42.6%	76.5%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	79.4%	42.6%	82.3%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	79.4%	42.6%	82.3%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	79.4%	42.6%	82.3%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	79.4%	42.6%	82.3%	41.5%	18.2%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	81.5%	42.6%	82.3%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	81.5%	42.6%	82.3%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	81.5%	42.6%	82.3%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	81.5%	42.6%	82.3%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	81.5%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	81.5%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	81.5%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	81.5%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	84.1%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	86.4%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	86.4%	60.6%	31.5%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	84.0%	40.1%	86.4%	60.6%	31.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	64.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	65.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	63.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗