KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 04 · 06:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

61%

40%

32%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

ICONNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.05u · ICON −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	5.5%	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	8.2%	13.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	3.3%	68.9%	29.8%	—	33.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	27.2%	36.4%	29.7%	—	25.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	17.9%	33.0%	26.4%	—	42.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	32.3%	30.9%	31.6%	—	39.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	13.8%	—	13.8%	36.9%	24.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	8.5%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	33.0%	17.2%	45.6%	—	47.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	15.0%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	27.4%	39.1%	39.1%	—	44.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	30.9%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	21.0%	26.3%	49.0%	—	33.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	54.1%	36.9%	22.7%	31.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	67.4%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	60.8%	46.7%	0.4%	34.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	59.0%	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	57.0%	46.5%	—	22.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	41.6%	69.6%	51.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	27.6%	68.0%	50.0%	24.6%	23.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	38.5%	84.2%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	44.6%	79.0%	40.7%	29.5%	43.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	54.2%	74.7%	47.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	58.6%	80.9%	57.2%	55.8%	54.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	57.5%	77.6%	54.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	62.4%	86.6%	59.4%	60.9%	59.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	85.9%	85.9%	71.9%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	64.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	65.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	63.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗