KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

75%

73%

72%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.8¢Risks 83.80u

EPSNO 16.2¢Risks 16.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.20u · EPS −16.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	69.4%	—	—	53.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	25.4%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	15.3%	38.2%	2.6%	—	58.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	53.6%	46.4%	15.6%	—	42.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	33.0%	—	38.7%	78.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	4.9%	45.2%	24.2%	—	42.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	29.3%	24.5%	38.5%	—	54.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	13.7%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	40.5%	33.8%	77.9%	—	50.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	—	71.0%	79.7%	68.6%	45.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	64.3%	70.4%	—	55.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	—	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	73.2%	81.7%	—	53.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	80.2%	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	79.4%	94.1%	90.6%	—	62.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	86.5%	96.9%	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	79.3%	96.5%	79.3%	—	66.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	93.4%	96.5%	93.0%	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	87.6%	96.5%	87.0%	82.6%	66.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	88.5%	98.1%	79.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	85.9%	98.1%	66.9%	92.6%	65.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	73.5%	97.7%	70.0%	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	74.4%	98.1%	81.8%	97.5%	76.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	77.6%	97.3%	89.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	78.6%	99.4%	89.8%	93.9%	69.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	84.0%	95.1%	92.7%	—	83.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	70.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	68.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗