WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 05 · 06:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
55%
WN2
35%
HRES
30%
EPS
28%
ICON
19%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 37.0¢Risks 36.95u
VS
ICONNO 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.05u · ICON −63.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-05T03:55:31+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.1% · 2026-10-05T03:55:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.1% · 2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.1% · 2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.1% · 2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.1% · 2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-05T03:55:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-05T03:55:31+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-05T03:55:31+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:0010-05 03:5510-05 05:2610-05 06:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-05T03:55:31+00:0054.9%28.1%35.3%29.6%19.0%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:0054.9%28.1%35.3%29.6%19.0%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:0054.9%28.1%35.3%29.6%19.0%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:0054.9%28.1%35.3%29.6%19.0%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:0054.9%28.1%35.3%29.6%19.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-05 03:00Pending
AIFS Single55%69.0°F4.0°F2026-10-04 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%67.4°F2.9°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
IFS HRES30%66.5°F3.7°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%66.7°F3.1°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
National Blend25%67.0°F2.2°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
ICON19%65.4°F3.5°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗