KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 05 · 06:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

35%

30%

28%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

ICONNO 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.05u · ICON −63.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	2.2%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	37.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	6.6%	—	—	18.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.9%	11.9%	0.2%	—	25.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	20.4%	15.6%	2.7%	—	13.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.1%	—	10.7%	43.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	0.4%	13.1%	4.5%	—	11.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	5.6%	4.1%	9.0%	—	17.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	1.5%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	9.0%	6.5%	37.1%	—	14.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	27.4%	37.3%	25.1%	10.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	19.7%	24.7%	—	14.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	25.1%	34.9%	—	11.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	31.6%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	29.2%	57.6%	47.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	37.8%	67.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	26.0%	63.7%	26.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	50.0%	61.9%	48.8%	—	17.5%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	34.2%	59.9%	33.1%	26.6%	13.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	33.7%	67.5%	20.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	27.3%	65.7%	10.7%	40.7%	10.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	13.2%	59.7%	11.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	12.2%	60.1%	18.2%	55.8%	13.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	12.8%	51.5%	26.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	11.7%	71.0%	23.8%	33.1%	7.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	14.1%	33.9%	26.7%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	69.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	66.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗