KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

86%

84%

56%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.60u · ICON −22.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:29+00:00	90.9%	52.1%	97.6%	69.7%	56.4%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	90.9%	52.1%	97.6%	69.7%	56.4%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	90.9%	52.1%	97.6%	69.7%	56.4%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	90.9%	52.1%	98.0%	69.7%	56.4%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	90.9%	52.1%	98.0%	69.7%	56.4%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	90.9%	52.1%	98.0%	69.7%	56.4%
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00	95.4%	52.1%	98.0%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	95.4%	52.1%	98.0%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	95.4%	52.1%	98.0%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	95.4%	52.1%	98.0%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	95.4%	52.1%	98.0%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	95.4%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	95.4%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	95.4%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T15:18:16+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	96.8%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	97.6%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	97.6%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	97.6%	82.4%	56.4%
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	94.4%	83.5%	97.6%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	94.4%	83.5%	97.6%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	94.4%	83.5%	97.6%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	94.4%	83.5%	97.6%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	94.4%	83.5%	97.6%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	94.4%	84.1%	98.4%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	94.4%	84.1%	98.4%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	94.4%	84.1%	98.4%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	96.0%	84.1%	98.4%	86.2%	56.4%
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	96.0%	84.1%	98.4%	86.2%	56.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	76.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	76.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	73.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	71.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	68.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗