KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

86%

84%

56%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.60u · ICON −22.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	80.3%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	21.7%	—	—	55.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	1.5%	70.0%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	0.5%	—	2.9%	49.3%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	33.7%	43.4%	32.3%	—	74.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	34.4%	12.2%	77.2%	—	77.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	44.4%	73.2%	81.6%	—	77.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	87.1%	76.2%	82.2%	81.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	89.1%	83.3%	—	84.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	91.7%	71.8%	—	80.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	72.4%	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	77.5%	99.6%	84.1%	—	87.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	93.4%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	94.2%	99.3%	94.2%	—	95.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	97.0%	99.8%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	98.4%	99.3%	95.3%	2.0%	96.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	96.2%	99.8%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	96.0%	100.0%	93.9%	2.2%	97.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	98.9%	99.9%	93.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.8%	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	99.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	100.0%	99.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%	99.4%	100.0%	99.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	76.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	76.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	73.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	71.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	68.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗