KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

81%

66%

39%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T14:55:00+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.0%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.0%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.0%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.2%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.2%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.2%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	94.4%	40.2%	97.2%	66.4%	35.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	94.1%	40.2%	97.2%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	94.1%	40.2%	97.2%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	94.1%	40.2%	97.2%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	94.1%	40.2%	97.2%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	94.1%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	94.1%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	94.1%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	94.1%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	96.6%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	96.6%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	96.6%	39.0%	96.4%	81.4%	66.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	80.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	78.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	76.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	74.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	71.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 03 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗