KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

81%

66%

39%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.1%	37.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	0.0%	—	0.3%	18.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	9.0%	14.0%	8.4%	—	39.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	8.7%	1.7%	41.7%	—	42.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	12.7%	35.2%	46.0%	—	40.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	53.3%	36.9%	45.0%	44.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	55.2%	44.8%	—	46.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	59.1%	28.2%	—	38.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	27.6%	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	32.1%	91.8%	41.3%	—	48.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	59.9%	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	61.2%	88.2%	61.2%	—	64.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	71.2%	94.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	77.8%	85.7%	61.8%	0.0%	67.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	64.3%	93.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	61.5%	96.9%	53.5%	0.0%	68.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	78.4%	96.0%	50.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	90.5%	97.7%	71.3%	99.2%	81.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	93.6%	97.0%	76.2%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	93.5%	97.8%	80.0%	99.6%	76.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	96.0%	97.7%	90.2%	—	88.2%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	98.1%	99.2%	97.9%	99.9%	93.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	98.5%	99.5%	94.4%	—	88.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	99.6%	92.3%	99.9%	94.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.2%	99.9%	99.7%	99.3%	—	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	80.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	78.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	76.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	74.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	71.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 03 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗