WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 04 · 15:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
88%
AIFS
87%
HRES
62%
ICON
55%
EPS
37%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u
VS
EPSNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.50u · EPS −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.1% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.1% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.1% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.1% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.4% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00IFS HRES: 67.2% · 2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00IFS HRES: 67.2% · 2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00IFS HRES: 67.2% · 2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00IFS HRES: 67.2% · 2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00ICON: 45.9% · 2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00ICON: 45.9% · 2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00ICON: 45.9% · 2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00ICON: 45.9% · 2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:0010-04 04:2810-04 09:4510-04 15:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:0091.3%18.4%88.4%67.2%45.9%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:0091.3%18.4%91.6%67.2%45.9%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:0091.3%18.4%91.6%67.2%45.9%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:0091.3%18.4%91.6%67.2%45.9%
2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:0088.6%18.4%91.6%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:0088.6%18.4%91.6%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:0088.6%18.4%91.6%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:0088.6%18.4%91.6%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:0088.6%18.4%91.6%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:0088.6%35.1%88.4%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:0088.6%35.1%88.4%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:0088.6%35.1%88.4%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:0088.6%35.1%88.4%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:0087.2%35.4%88.4%61.5%54.5%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:0087.2%36.6%88.4%61.5%54.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 288%78.2°F3.1°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
AIFS Single87%79.2°F4.1°F2026-10-04 06:00Pending
National Blend68%76.0°F3.2°F2026-10-04 06:00Pending
IFS HRES62%75.7°F4.1°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-04 02:00Pending
ICON55%74.9°F3.5°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble37%73.4°F3.2°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 04 · 04:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗