KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 04 · 15:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

62%

55%

37%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

EPSNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.50u · EPS −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	41.6%	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	25.4%	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%	10.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	4.4%	7.4%	4.1%	—	26.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	4.1%	0.6%	27.7%	—	28.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	6.2%	21.8%	30.9%	—	26.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	36.9%	22.5%	29.3%	28.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	37.9%	28.4%	—	29.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	40.9%	14.9%	—	22.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	14.3%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	17.1%	81.7%	24.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	40.1%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	40.8%	74.9%	40.8%	—	43.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	51.1%	85.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	58.7%	69.9%	40.3%	0.0%	46.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	42.2%	82.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	38.5%	90.0%	31.0%	0.0%	45.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	57.2%	87.4%	27.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	75.4%	91.5%	47.5%	96.3%	61.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	80.9%	89.1%	52.6%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	80.0%	91.1%	56.7%	97.8%	51.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	85.3%	90.2%	72.4%	—	68.8%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	91.1%	95.3%	90.5%	99.2%	78.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	92.0%	96.3%	79.8%	—	66.2%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	92.3%	96.9%	73.7%	98.7%	78.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	98.4%	97.4%	94.7%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	78.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	75.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
ICON	55%	74.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 04 · 04:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗