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KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 05 · 03:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
77%
WN2
63%
HRES
35%
EPS
18%
ICON
17%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 47.1¢Risks 47.05u
VS
ICONNO 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.95u · ICON −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.1% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.7% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.7% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.7% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.7% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.7% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.7% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 42.3% · 2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:00IFS HRES: 42.3% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00IFS HRES: 42.3% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00IFS HRES: 42.3% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 42.3% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 34.8% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:0010-04 15:5210-04 21:5410-05 03:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:0074.3%16.1%70.8%42.3%32.5%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:0074.3%16.1%70.8%42.3%32.5%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:0074.3%16.1%67.4%42.3%32.5%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:0074.3%16.1%67.4%42.3%32.5%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:0074.3%16.1%67.4%42.3%32.5%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:0073.5%16.1%67.4%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:0073.5%16.1%67.4%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:0073.5%16.1%67.4%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:0073.5%16.1%67.4%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:0073.5%16.1%67.4%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:0073.5%17.7%62.6%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:0073.5%17.7%62.6%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:0073.5%17.7%62.6%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:0077.3%17.7%62.6%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:0077.3%17.7%62.6%34.8%16.8%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:0077.3%17.7%62.6%34.8%16.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single77%79.6°F4.1°F2026-10-04 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 263%77.5°F3.1°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
NWS forecast56%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-04 14:00Pending
National Blend44%76.0°F3.2°F2026-10-04 06:00Pending
IFS HRES35%74.9°F4.1°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%73.6°F3.1°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
ICON17%73.1°F3.5°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 04 · 15:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗