KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 05 · 03:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

63%

35%

18%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

ICONNO 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.95u · ICON −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	30.2%	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.0%	15.9%	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%	5.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	1.9%	3.5%	1.7%	—	15.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	1.7%	0.2%	16.4%	—	16.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	2.6%	11.9%	18.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	22.5%	12.0%	16.8%	16.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	22.8%	15.6%	—	16.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	24.4%	6.6%	—	11.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	6.1%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	7.5%	66.1%	11.6%	—	15.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	22.6%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	22.7%	56.1%	22.7%	—	25.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	30.7%	70.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	37.1%	48.9%	21.3%	0.0%	26.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	22.3%	64.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	19.1%	75.8%	14.0%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	33.6%	70.7%	11.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	52.5%	77.3%	24.6%	87.6%	36.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	59.0%	72.0%	28.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	56.7%	74.9%	30.7%	91.1%	26.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	63.7%	72.4%	45.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	73.2%	82.8%	72.0%	95.3%	52.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	74.0%	84.7%	53.0%	—	36.6%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	73.7%	85.8%	43.7%	92.3%	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	90.8%	86.9%	78.5%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	79.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-04 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	74.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	73.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 04 · 15:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗