WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
27%
HRES
9%
ICON
5%
WN2
4%
EPS
2%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 14.5¢Risks 14.45u
VS
EPSNO 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.55u · EPS −85.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-06T15:29:28+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T15:29:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T15:29:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-06T15:29:28+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-06T15:29:28+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:0010-06 15:2910-06 17:4510-06 19:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T15:29:28+00:0026.6%2.3%8.5%8.6%5.4%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:0026.6%2.3%8.5%8.6%5.4%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:0026.6%2.3%8.5%8.6%5.4%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:0026.6%2.3%3.8%8.6%5.4%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:0026.6%2.3%3.8%8.6%5.4%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:0026.6%2.3%3.8%8.6%5.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%82.0°F2.2°F2026-10-06 14:00Pending
AIFS Single27%79.6°F3.0°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
National Blend16%78.0°F3.5°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS HRES9%76.4°F3.7°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
ICON5%76.0°F3.4°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%77.1°F2.5°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%75.7°F2.9°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗