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KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
27%
HRES
9%
ICON
5%
WN2
4%
EPS
2%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 14.5¢Risks 14.45u
VS
EPSNO 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.55u · EPS −85.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.3% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.7% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 34.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 36.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 44.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 29.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0009-21 12:0009-29 06:0010-06 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:008.1%————1.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.7%————0.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:0016.5%————1.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:004.8%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:001.9%————1.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.1%————0.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.4%————2.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:009.4%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:006.6%————0.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:007.1%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:006.9%————1.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:009.7%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:0015.2%————1.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:0021.4%—————
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:0012.7%—10.1%——1.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.3%————0.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.3%—2.2%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.2%—0.1%——1.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%3.2%——1.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.3%—0.0%———
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%—0.0%0.7%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:004.9%—0.6%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:0015.2%0.1%0.3%0.1%—2.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:002.5%—0.0%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:006.5%0.1%0.0%2.7%—2.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:001.8%—0.1%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:002.9%0.2%1.5%2.9%—2.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:001.9%—1.7%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:001.7%—3.6%1.3%2.2%2.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:002.4%—2.5%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:002.7%—3.2%1.7%—1.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:002.2%—0.8%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:003.0%—3.2%0.4%—0.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:002.7%0.3%11.8%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:004.2%0.4%21.0%0.8%—1.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:007.6%2.2%25.7%———
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:006.7%2.1%12.8%2.1%—2.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0010.6%3.3%21.3%——0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:006.2%4.5%8.1%1.5%0.0%2.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:004.5%1.5%14.8%0.0%——
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.0%1.0%22.4%0.5%0.0%1.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:004.8%2.7%16.7%0.3%—0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:006.3%6.7%20.8%1.2%34.2%2.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:003.7%8.2%15.0%1.4%——
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:003.7%6.5%15.7%1.4%36.8%1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.8%8.1%12.4%3.2%—2.5%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:004.7%11.5%19.1%10.8%44.2%4.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:001.7%10.5%19.2%3.4%—1.3%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:002.6%8.9%18.1%1.6%29.0%2.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.0%22.8%17.0%9.9%—17.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%82.0°F2.2°F2026-10-06 14:00Pending
AIFS Single27%79.6°F3.0°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
National Blend16%78.0°F3.5°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS HRES9%76.4°F3.7°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
ICON5%76.0°F3.4°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%77.1°F2.5°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%75.7°F2.9°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗