KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

80%

76%

70%

58%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

ICONNO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.10u · ICON −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	90.3%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	24.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	90.3%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	24.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	90.3%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	24.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	24.9%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	25.2%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	25.2%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	25.2%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	82.2%	82.0%	58.1%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	78.8%	82.0%	58.1%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	78.8%	82.0%	58.1%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	89.0%	81.1%	78.8%	82.0%	58.1%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	84.0%	81.1%	78.8%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	84.0%	81.1%	78.8%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	84.0%	81.1%	78.8%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	84.0%	81.1%	78.8%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	84.0%	81.1%	78.8%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	84.0%	80.4%	76.4%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	84.0%	80.4%	76.4%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	84.0%	80.4%	76.4%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	81.7%	80.4%	76.4%	69.9%	58.1%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	81.7%	80.4%	76.4%	69.9%	58.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	73.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	72.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	71.8°F	6.3°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	58%	70.5°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 30 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗