KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

80%

76%

70%

58%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

ICONNO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.10u · ICON −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	83.6%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	3.6%	66.4%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	35.6%	47.2%	12.2%	—	75.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	18.9%	41.3%	77.4%	—	81.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	46.9%	49.2%	62.7%	72.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	84.1%	50.0%	—	68.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	86.7%	63.1%	—	42.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	70.4%	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	69.3%	88.7%	39.6%	—	44.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	41.1%	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	44.5%	89.8%	25.1%	—	39.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	54.7%	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	46.1%	85.3%	39.4%	—	60.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	49.0%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	47.9%	81.7%	69.7%	—	62.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	63.5%	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	75.3%	86.9%	63.9%	0.6%	67.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	81.0%	92.9%	7.1%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	82.5%	93.5%	89.0%	0.4%	75.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	81.7%	95.2%	90.3%	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	88.2%	95.7%	88.2%	79.2%	81.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	92.8%	90.8%	90.2%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	93.5%	87.4%	86.6%	80.9%	74.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	92.9%	88.9%	86.1%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	94.9%	94.5%	85.4%	57.2%	92.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	95.6%	97.6%	81.9%	—	90.1%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	96.3%	97.1%	81.9%	68.3%	91.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	97.2%	97.2%	92.1%	—	98.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	73.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	72.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	71.8°F	6.3°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	58%	70.5°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 30 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗