KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

92%

69%

60%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

ICONNO 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.65u · ICON −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:29+00:00	70.6%	64.8%	62.1%	58.1%	50.0%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	70.6%	64.8%	62.1%	58.1%	50.0%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	70.6%	64.8%	62.1%	58.1%	50.0%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	70.6%	64.8%	66.7%	58.1%	50.0%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	70.6%	64.8%	66.7%	58.1%	50.0%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	70.6%	64.8%	66.7%	58.1%	50.0%
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00	85.8%	64.8%	66.7%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	85.8%	64.8%	66.7%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	85.8%	64.8%	66.7%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	85.8%	64.8%	66.7%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	85.8%	64.8%	66.7%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	88.2%	65.8%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T15:18:16+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	79.2%	81.0%	50.0%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	79.2%	81.4%	50.0%
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	74.5%	81.4%	50.0%
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	74.5%	81.4%	50.0%
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	88.2%	66.0%	74.5%	81.4%	50.0%
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	90.3%	66.0%	74.5%	60.3%	50.0%
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	90.3%	66.0%	74.5%	60.3%	50.0%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	90.3%	66.0%	74.5%	60.3%	50.0%
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	90.3%	66.0%	74.5%	60.3%	50.0%
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	90.3%	66.0%	74.5%	60.3%	50.0%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	90.3%	67.2%	72.4%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	90.3%	67.2%	72.4%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	90.3%	67.2%	72.4%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	91.2%	67.2%	72.4%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	91.2%	67.2%	72.4%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	83.6%	77.6%	97.0%	60.9%	50.0%
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	83.6%	77.6%	97.0%	60.9%	50.0%
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	83.6%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	83.6%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	83.6%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	83.6%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	80.4%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	80.4%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	80.4%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	80.4%	77.6%	95.3%	60.9%	64.1%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	80.4%	77.6%	95.3%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	80.4%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	80.4%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	80.4%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	89.9%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	82.3%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	82.3%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	76.2%	75.7%	82.3%	51.4%	64.1%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	80.1%	75.7%	82.3%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	80.1%	75.7%	82.3%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	80.1%	75.7%	82.3%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	80.1%	75.7%	82.3%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	80.1%	69.1%	83.1%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	80.1%	69.1%	83.1%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	80.1%	69.1%	83.1%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	80.1%	69.1%	83.1%	29.5%	64.1%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	83.0%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	83.0%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	83.0%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	83.0%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T17:10:32+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	77.7%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	77.7%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	77.7%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	75.6%	69.1%	77.7%	29.5%	64.0%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	84.6%	69.1%	77.7%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	84.6%	69.1%	77.7%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	84.6%	69.1%	77.7%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	84.6%	69.1%	77.7%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	84.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	84.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	84.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	84.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	80.8%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	83.0%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	83.0%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	89.6%	66.9%	83.0%	33.0%	40.0%
2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00	91.3%	66.9%	83.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	91.3%	66.9%	83.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	91.3%	66.9%	83.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	91.3%	66.9%	83.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	91.3%	66.9%	83.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	91.3%	83.9%	89.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	91.3%	83.9%	89.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	91.3%	83.9%	89.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	91.3%	83.9%	89.0%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	89.7%	83.3%	88.9%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	89.7%	84.1%	88.9%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	89.7%	84.6%	88.9%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	89.7%	84.6%	88.9%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	89.7%	84.6%	89.4%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	89.7%	84.6%	89.4%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	89.7%	84.6%	89.4%	32.0%	31.3%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	91.6%	84.6%	89.4%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	91.6%	84.6%	89.4%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	91.6%	84.6%	89.4%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	91.6%	84.6%	89.4%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	91.6%	84.6%	89.4%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	91.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	91.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	91.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00	92.6%	86.2%	92.3%	62.3%	33.1%
2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00	93.0%	86.2%	92.3%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	93.0%	86.2%	92.3%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	93.0%	86.2%	92.3%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	93.0%	86.2%	92.3%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	93.0%	86.2%	92.3%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	93.0%	91.7%	94.7%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	93.0%	91.7%	94.7%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	93.0%	91.7%	94.7%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	92.6%	91.7%	94.7%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	92.6%	91.2%	94.6%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	92.6%	91.9%	94.6%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	92.6%	91.9%	94.6%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	92.6%	91.9%	94.6%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	92.6%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	92.6%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	92.6%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	51.1%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	91.2%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	59.0%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	91.2%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	59.0%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	91.2%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	59.0%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	91.2%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	59.0%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	91.2%	91.9%	94.2%	68.7%	59.0%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	91.2%	92.4%	92.1%	68.7%	60.1%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	91.2%	92.4%	92.1%	68.7%	60.1%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	91.2%	92.4%	92.1%	68.7%	60.1%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	92.6%	92.4%	92.1%	68.7%	60.1%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	92.6%	92.4%	92.1%	68.7%	60.1%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	92.6%	92.4%	92.1%	68.7%	60.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	76.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	74.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	74.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	71.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗