KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

92%

69%

60%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

ICONNO 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.65u · ICON −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	74.3%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	1.6%	53.4%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	23.5%	33.6%	6.5%	—	63.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	10.6%	27.9%	65.0%	—	70.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	32.3%	34.4%	47.7%	58.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	72.6%	34.5%	—	53.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	75.5%	46.7%	—	27.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	54.3%	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	52.6%	77.9%	24.1%	—	28.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	24.9%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	27.4%	79.1%	12.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	36.1%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	27.9%	71.3%	22.5%	—	41.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	29.9%	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	28.5%	65.1%	50.0%	—	41.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	42.6%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	55.5%	71.8%	42.4%	0.1%	46.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	62.2%	81.7%	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	63.7%	82.5%	74.0%	0.1%	54.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	61.9%	85.5%	75.6%	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	71.3%	86.3%	71.3%	57.4%	61.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	79.1%	75.2%	74.1%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	80.0%	68.1%	66.9%	58.0%	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	77.9%	70.0%	65.0%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	81.8%	80.9%	62.8%	29.3%	75.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	82.8%	88.8%	56.0%	—	70.2%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	83.9%	86.6%	54.7%	37.6%	71.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	85.9%	85.9%	71.9%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	76.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	74.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	74.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	71.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗