KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

81%

42%

42%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

HRESNO 35.1¢Risks 35.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.05u · HRES −35.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00	83.6%	42.4%	56.1%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	83.6%	42.4%	56.1%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	83.6%	42.4%	56.1%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	83.6%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	83.6%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	83.6%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	85.5%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	85.5%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	85.5%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	85.5%	42.4%	86.9%	48.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	85.5%	42.4%	86.9%	47.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	85.5%	56.0%	90.0%	47.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	85.5%	56.0%	90.0%	47.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	85.5%	56.0%	90.0%	47.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	72.2%	56.0%	90.0%	47.2%	41.9%
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	71.6%	56.0%	90.0%	47.2%	41.9%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	83.3%	77.4%	78.0%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	83.3%	77.4%	78.0%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	83.3%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	83.3%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	83.3%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	83.4%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	83.4%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	83.4%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	83.4%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	83.4%	77.4%	78.9%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	83.4%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	83.4%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	83.4%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	82.8%	84.8%	79.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	79.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	77.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	77.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	82.8%	84.9%	77.4%	50.0%	34.6%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	84.7%	84.9%	77.4%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	84.7%	84.9%	77.4%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	84.7%	84.9%	77.4%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	84.7%	84.9%	77.4%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	84.7%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	84.7%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	84.7%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	84.7%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T04:20:26+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	74.2%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	81.3%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	81.3%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	81.3%	41.5%	42.1%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	88.4%	85.6%	81.3%	41.5%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	77.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	75.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	73.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗