KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

81%

42%

42%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

HRESNO 35.1¢Risks 35.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.05u · HRES −35.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	23.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	25.9%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	—	—	62.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.7%	40.0%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	14.1%	21.9%	3.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	5.3%	17.0%	50.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	20.0%	21.6%	33.0%	43.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	57.9%	21.2%	—	37.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	60.7%	30.8%	—	15.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	37.4%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	35.4%	62.9%	12.7%	—	15.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	13.0%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	14.4%	63.6%	5.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	20.3%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	14.2%	52.9%	10.7%	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	15.2%	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	13.9%	44.9%	30.3%	—	23.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	23.6%	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	34.1%	51.1%	23.0%	0.0%	26.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	40.0%	63.3%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	40.8%	63.7%	52.3%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	38.1%	67.5%	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	47.5%	68.0%	47.5%	33.1%	36.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	56.4%	51.3%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	56.7%	42.0%	40.7%	31.9%	25.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	52.8%	43.1%	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	57.2%	55.8%	34.5%	10.2%	48.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	57.5%	67.5%	27.2%	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	57.9%	62.4%	25.0%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	59.8%	59.8%	40.2%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	77.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	75.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	73.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗