KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

90%

77%

62%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

WN2NO 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.60u · WN2 −20.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	92.6%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T15:18:16+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	67.4%	75.1%
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	63.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	63.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	63.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	91.9%	96.3%	63.6%	76.6%
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	91.9%	96.3%	63.6%	76.6%
2026-10-01T21:19:31+00:00	91.9%	96.3%	63.6%	76.6%
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	91.9%	96.3%	63.6%	76.6%
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	91.9%	96.3%	63.6%	76.6%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	91.9%	96.7%	62.1%	76.6%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	91.9%	96.7%	62.1%	76.6%
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	91.9%	96.7%	62.1%	76.6%
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	90.2%	96.7%	62.1%	76.6%
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	90.2%	96.7%	62.1%	76.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	73.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	71.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 01 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗