KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

90%

77%

62%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

WN2NO 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.60u · WN2 −20.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	85.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	10.1%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	75.9%	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	57.0%	31.7%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	95.9%	83.5%	—	62.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	78.4%	43.9%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	61.8%	92.5%	57.1%	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	16.2%	77.5%	30.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	22.0%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	44.8%	83.9%	33.8%	—	54.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	47.3%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	40.9%	59.1%	34.7%	—	48.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	55.7%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	54.9%	69.6%	32.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	40.1%	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	27.6%	68.8%	18.3%	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	52.1%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	39.2%	47.8%	23.8%	41.3%	38.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	37.8%	57.8%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	52.3%	60.4%	21.5%	—	34.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	42.8%	58.4%	22.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	52.5%	64.6%	18.2%	42.6%	34.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	52.6%	62.7%	19.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	36.8%	35.6%	12.7%	38.1%	27.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	41.7%	32.5%	10.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.4%	41.4%	13.0%	54.3%	52.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	31.1%	38.1%	11.2%	—	38.1%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	19.2%	46.8%	5.7%	46.8%	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	28.1%	51.6%	13.2%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	73.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	71.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 01 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗