KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

56%

53%

47%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

WN2NO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · WN2 −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:26+00:00	70.2%	44.9%	62.8%	73.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	70.2%	44.9%	61.7%	73.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	70.2%	44.9%	61.7%	73.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	70.2%	44.9%	61.7%	73.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	70.2%	44.9%	61.7%	73.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	73.6%	44.9%	61.7%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	73.6%	44.9%	61.7%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	73.6%	44.9%	61.7%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	73.6%	44.9%	61.7%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	73.6%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	73.6%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	73.6%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	82.1%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	82.2%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	82.2%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	82.2%	55.5%	47.4%	77.5%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	76.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗