KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

56%

53%

47%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

WN2NO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · WN2 −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	0.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	73.8%	—	85.2%	34.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	28.1%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	18.9%	31.7%	25.4%	—	8.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	6.3%	1.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	26.1%	25.5%	6.2%	—	23.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	—	17.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	14.6%	41.3%	10.9%	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	1.7%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	23.0%	53.7%	27.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	27.6%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	35.7%	61.5%	39.4%	—	46.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	17.7%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	24.3%	—	46.9%	—	61.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	31.6%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	56.5%	84.5%	45.6%	60.8%	58.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	44.4%	83.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	48.8%	64.8%	35.2%	91.0%	48.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	26.3%	40.5%	30.4%	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	50.0%	35.4%	40.1%	84.9%	45.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	32.5%	39.8%	33.7%	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	19.1%	36.8%	40.7%	87.4%	46.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	24.2%	51.4%	40.3%	—	59.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	37.2%	48.5%	40.0%	89.2%	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	31.1%	59.0%	22.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	37.6%	72.4%	45.3%	90.4%	45.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	43.4%	80.8%	17.0%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	76.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗