KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

88%

83%

63%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 80.0¢Risks 80.05u

EPSNO 20.0¢Risks 19.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +19.95u · EPS −19.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00	91.4%	62.3%	94.8%	71.0%	88.9%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	91.4%	62.3%	94.8%	71.0%	88.9%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	91.4%	62.3%	94.8%	71.0%	88.9%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	91.4%	62.3%	89.8%	71.0%	88.9%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	91.4%	62.3%	89.8%	71.0%	88.9%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	91.4%	62.3%	89.8%	71.0%	88.9%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	94.3%	62.3%	89.8%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	94.3%	62.3%	89.8%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	94.3%	62.3%	89.8%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	94.3%	62.3%	89.8%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	94.3%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	94.3%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	94.3%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	94.3%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	95.9%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	95.9%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	95.9%	63.3%	87.7%	83.1%	96.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	88.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	87.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	84.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	80.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗