KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

88%

83%

63%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 80.0¢Risks 80.05u

EPSNO 20.0¢Risks 19.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +19.95u · EPS −19.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	85.0%	—	9.5%	21.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	0.0%	77.0%	0.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	0.0%	82.5%	22.1%	—	42.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	0.0%	86.2%	4.1%	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	75.2%	87.3%	50.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	69.2%	92.3%	8.3%	—	50.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	46.6%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	82.8%	95.5%	56.1%	—	73.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	93.7%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	95.4%	—	56.4%	—	74.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	97.7%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.6%	97.5%	76.8%	—	91.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	97.5%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.0%	97.7%	81.0%	—	86.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	98.4%	96.7%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	99.1%	97.1%	89.1%	—	94.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	99.1%	99.1%	0.0%	—	92.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.5%	99.2%	84.0%	90.0%	92.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	99.6%	99.4%	87.4%	—	94.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.6%	99.6%	88.8%	—	97.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.5%	99.7%	90.2%	—	96.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	99.6%	99.8%	91.6%	98.8%	95.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.8%	99.9%	91.3%	—	97.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.7%	99.9%	91.6%	98.9%	99.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	99.9%	92.5%	—	98.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	99.9%	93.4%	99.7%	98.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	88.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	87.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	84.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	80.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗