KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

88%

63%

58%

44%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.90u · EPS −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:26+00:00	80.7%	24.1%	53.2%	56.4%	84.4%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	80.7%	24.1%	72.4%	56.4%	84.4%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	80.7%	24.1%	72.4%	56.4%	84.4%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	80.7%	24.1%	72.4%	56.4%	84.4%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	80.7%	24.1%	72.4%	56.4%	84.4%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	89.0%	24.1%	72.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	89.0%	24.1%	72.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	89.0%	24.1%	72.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	89.0%	24.1%	72.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	89.0%	38.7%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	89.0%	38.7%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	89.0%	38.7%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	90.6%	38.7%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	90.6%	39.0%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	90.6%	39.0%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	90.6%	38.7%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00	90.6%	38.7%	76.2%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	90.6%	38.7%	69.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	90.6%	38.7%	69.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	90.6%	38.7%	69.4%	74.8%	92.3%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	87.6%	38.7%	69.4%	58.0%	87.9%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	87.6%	38.7%	69.4%	58.0%	87.9%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	87.6%	38.7%	69.4%	58.0%	87.9%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	87.6%	38.7%	69.4%	58.0%	87.9%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	87.6%	38.7%	69.4%	58.0%	87.9%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	87.6%	43.7%	62.8%	58.0%	87.9%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	87.6%	43.7%	62.8%	58.0%	87.8%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	87.6%	43.7%	62.8%	58.0%	87.8%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	88.5%	43.7%	62.8%	58.0%	87.8%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	88.5%	43.7%	62.8%	58.0%	87.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	88.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	88.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	84.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	83.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗