KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

88%

63%

58%

44%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.90u · EPS −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	66.5%	—	2.8%	8.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	0.0%	51.4%	0.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	0.0%	58.0%	6.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	0.0%	62.7%	0.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	45.2%	63.3%	21.2%	—	16.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	36.9%	72.1%	1.3%	—	20.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	17.3%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	52.6%	79.2%	23.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	73.6%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	77.7%	—	22.3%	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	85.2%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	88.9%	83.5%	40.4%	—	65.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	84.9%	83.0%	43.9%	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	86.2%	78.0%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	89.6%	78.7%	55.5%	—	69.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	88.8%	89.3%	0.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	91.5%	89.0%	43.0%	54.6%	61.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	93.0%	90.8%	47.6%	—	65.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	92.5%	91.5%	48.8%	—	75.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	89.7%	92.3%	50.0%	—	68.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	90.5%	94.3%	51.3%	81.8%	61.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	92.4%	94.6%	48.6%	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	91.1%	94.5%	47.1%	79.8%	83.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	95.2%	94.4%	47.0%	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	92.3%	94.3%	46.8%	87.5%	73.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	99.2%	98.3%	80.8%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	88.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	88.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	84.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	83.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗