KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

47%

35%

34%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.65u

EPSNO 53.3¢Risks 53.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.35u · EPS −53.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	50.0%	47.9%	54.5%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	50.0%	47.9%	54.5%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	47.9%	54.5%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	47.9%	54.5%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	47.9%	54.5%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	70.1%	17.6%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	70.1%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	70.1%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	70.1%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	70.1%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	76.6%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	76.6%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	76.6%	16.7%	34.1%	35.4%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	89.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	85.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	83.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 09 · 16:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗