KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

47%

35%

34%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.65u

EPSNO 53.3¢Risks 53.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.35u · EPS −53.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	48.8%	—	0.9%	3.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	0.0%	31.1%	0.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	36.4%	2.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.0%	40.2%	0.1%	—	2.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	23.6%	39.7%	8.1%	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	16.8%	48.3%	0.2%	—	7.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	5.6%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	27.7%	56.1%	8.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	48.2%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	52.8%	—	7.3%	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	63.0%	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	68.7%	59.6%	16.5%	—	36.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	58.0%	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	60.2%	57.2%	17.6%	—	23.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	61.5%	48.9%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	66.9%	48.9%	24.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	64.3%	65.4%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	69.0%	63.7%	14.7%	22.4%	28.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	71.7%	66.4%	16.7%	—	30.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	69.2%	66.9%	16.6%	—	40.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	61.5%	67.5%	16.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	61.9%	71.6%	16.5%	46.0%	24.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	71.2%	13.9%	—	33.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	60.1%	69.5%	12.2%	40.0%	45.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	70.2%	67.5%	11.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	59.4%	65.4%	10.2%	48.4%	29.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	87.7%	80.8%	35.5%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	89.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	85.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	83.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 09 · 16:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗