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KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
31%
HRES
7%
ICON
5%
WN2
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 16.1¢Risks 16.05u
VS
EPSNO 84.0¢Risks 83.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.95u · EPS −83.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:0010-10 15:3910-10 18:4010-10 21:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:0032.3%1.0%9.2%7.4%5.5%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:0032.3%1.0%9.2%7.4%5.5%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:0032.3%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.5%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:0032.3%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.5%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:0032.3%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.5%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:0032.3%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.5%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:0031.1%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.2%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:0031.1%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:0031.1%1.0%2.4%7.4%5.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%91.0°F2.2°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending
AIFS Single31%89.0°F3.0°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS HRES7%85.1°F3.7°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
ICON5%84.9°F3.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
National Blend3%87.0°F1.9°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%85.6°F2.5°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%84.0°F2.8°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 15:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗