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KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
31%
HRES
7%
ICON
5%
WN2
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 16.1¢Risks 16.05u
VS
EPSNO 84.0¢Risks 83.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.95u · EPS −83.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.1% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 7.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0009-25 12:0010-03 06:0010-10 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:004.7%————0.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.3%————0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:003.4%————0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:000.2%————0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.6%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:004.7%————0.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:003.6%—26.2%—0.1%0.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:0012.5%————0.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0015.6%—6.4%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:002.1%—3.2%———
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:006.5%—12.9%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:004.0%—10.4%———
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:003.9%0.0%11.5%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:006.1%—7.0%———
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:004.1%0.0%14.0%0.3%—1.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:003.0%—13.1%———
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.8%0.0%15.5%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.3%—0.0%———
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:003.9%6.4%14.5%1.4%—0.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:003.8%—6.8%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:004.5%3.6%18.9%0.0%—1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.9%0.7%11.9%———
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:007.3%7.0%23.4%1.2%—3.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.4%17.2%23.5%———
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:005.0%19.6%—0.9%—3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:006.1%26.9%21.7%———
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:009.8%31.3%23.2%2.5%—9.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0011.0%21.1%17.7%———
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:007.4%21.9%19.7%2.5%—4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:008.3%22.0%13.8%——5.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:009.4%25.5%13.1%3.8%—8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:007.1%22.3%23.1%0.0%—5.1%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:007.2%25.1%20.7%1.3%2.7%4.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:007.0%26.3%21.6%1.5%—4.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:006.3%22.7%20.8%1.3%—6.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:004.6%15.8%20.0%1.2%—3.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:004.0%14.9%22.0%1.0%7.4%2.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:005.8%15.6%20.1%0.7%—3.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:007.3%11.5%17.2%0.4%4.4%5.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.7%16.2%14.4%0.3%—2.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:002.0%8.9%11.7%0.2%5.2%1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.4%30.9%21.6%2.1%—32.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%91.0°F2.2°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending
AIFS Single31%89.0°F3.0°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS HRES7%85.1°F3.7°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
ICON5%84.9°F3.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
National Blend3%87.0°F1.9°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%85.6°F2.5°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%84.0°F2.8°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 15:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗