KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 07 · 10:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

95%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 97.0¢Risks 24.26u

WN2NO 3.0¢Risks 0.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.74u · WN2 −0.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00	96.9%	37.2%	56.7%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	96.9%	37.2%	56.7%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	96.9%	37.2%	56.7%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	96.9%	37.2%	56.7%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	96.9%	37.2%	56.7%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T11:16:20+00:00	96.9%	69.1%	80.4%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	96.9%	69.1%	80.4%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	96.9%	69.1%	80.4%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	96.9%	69.1%	80.4%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	81.0%	69.1%	80.3%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	80.3%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	80.3%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	80.3%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	54.9%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	54.9%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	54.9%	77.0%	0.2%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	94.7%	70.1%	54.9%	84.3%	1.5%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	94.7%	70.1%	54.9%	84.3%	1.5%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	94.7%	70.1%	54.9%	84.3%	1.5%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	94.7%	70.1%	54.9%	84.3%	1.5%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	94.7%	70.1%	54.9%	84.3%	1.5%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	94.7%	71.0%	62.0%	84.7%	1.5%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	94.7%	71.0%	62.0%	84.7%	1.5%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	94.7%	71.0%	62.0%	84.7%	1.5%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	96.0%	71.0%	62.0%	84.7%	1.5%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	96.0%	71.0%	62.0%	84.7%	1.5%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	96.0%	71.0%	62.0%	84.7%	1.5%
2026-10-05T16:04:45+00:00	97.0%	69.5%	89.9%	90.4%	55.2%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	97.0%	69.5%	89.9%	90.4%	55.2%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	97.0%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	55.2%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	97.0%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	55.2%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	97.0%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	55.2%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	98.7%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	98.7%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	98.7%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	98.7%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	98.7%	69.5%	90.3%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	98.7%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	98.7%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	98.7%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	90.0%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	98.3%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	46.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	97.9%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	97.9%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	97.9%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	97.9%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	97.9%	70.3%	93.9%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	97.9%	96.2%	93.7%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	97.9%	96.2%	93.7%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	97.9%	96.2%	93.7%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	97.6%	96.2%	93.7%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	97.6%	96.2%	93.8%	90.4%	74.9%
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	94.6%	96.5%	93.1%	90.8%	84.5%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	94.6%	96.5%	94.3%	90.8%	84.5%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	94.6%	96.5%	94.3%	90.8%	84.5%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	94.6%	96.5%	94.3%	90.8%	84.5%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	94.6%	96.5%	94.3%	90.8%	84.5%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	94.3%	97.1%	99.8%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	94.3%	97.1%	99.8%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	94.3%	97.1%	99.8%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	94.3%	97.1%	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	89.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	85.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	83.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	84%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	79.0°F	11.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗