KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 07 · 10:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

95%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 97.0¢Risks 24.26u

WN2NO 3.0¢Risks 0.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.74u · WN2 −0.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.4%	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	15.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	72.2%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	0.0%	72.9%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	0.0%	39.6%	3.9%	—	46.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	33.0%	31.7%	8.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	22.8%	35.1%	4.1%	—	63.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	61.8%	50.0%	11.1%	—	79.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	76.8%	—	92.6%	—	81.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	94.6%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	99.7%	37.1%	86.4%	—	90.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	97.8%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	94.5%	93.7%	84.5%	—	89.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	99.4%	97.7%	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	99.5%	97.3%	74.5%	—	97.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	99.4%	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	99.8%	99.9%	75.7%	—	97.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	99.7%	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	98.8%	99.7%	91.9%	—	98.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	99.7%	99.9%	4.2%	—	99.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	100.0%	99.9%	92.4%	99.9%	99.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.8%	99.9%	89.8%	—	99.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	95.1%	—	99.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	94.0%	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%	95.7%	99.9%	99.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	95.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	89.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	85.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	83.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	84%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	79.0°F	11.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗