KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

81%

81%

78%

76%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 84.5¢Risks 42.25u

EPSNO 15.5¢Risks 7.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +7.75u · EPS −7.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T15:16:01+00:00	77.1%	76.1%	71.4%	86.8%	90.6%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	77.1%	76.1%	71.4%	86.8%	90.6%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	77.1%	76.1%	71.4%	86.8%	90.6%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	77.1%	76.1%	71.4%	86.8%	90.6%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	77.1%	76.1%	71.4%	86.8%	90.6%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	77.1%	76.1%	71.4%	86.8%	90.6%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	71.4%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	71.4%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	71.4%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	71.4%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	71.4%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	80.7%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	80.7%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	82.9%	76.1%	80.7%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	81.0%	76.1%	80.7%	78.3%	92.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	81.0%	76.1%	80.7%	78.3%	92.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	93%	87.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	85.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	84.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	83.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 08 · 15:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗