KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

81%

81%

78%

76%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 84.5¢Risks 42.25u

EPSNO 15.5¢Risks 7.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +7.75u · EPS −7.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	3.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.0%	34.2%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	0.0%	9.3%	0.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	6.2%	5.7%	0.7%	—	13.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	2.9%	6.3%	0.2%	—	21.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	18.4%	11.5%	0.8%	—	35.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	30.0%	—	57.5%	—	35.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	62.6%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	92.3%	5.0%	41.3%	—	49.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	74.3%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	58.2%	55.5%	35.6%	—	45.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	86.3%	71.6%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	86.9%	67.8%	21.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	84.8%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	91.0%	92.2%	19.7%	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	73.8%	86.8%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	72.7%	85.7%	40.3%	—	74.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	86.5%	91.3%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	93.5%	91.0%	37.4%	90.6%	71.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	84.0%	89.8%	29.3%	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	95.1%	92.5%	41.3%	—	86.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	96.8%	94.4%	34.9%	—	83.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	96.8%	96.3%	38.1%	82.7%	77.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.4%	96.8%	33.8%	—	88.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	99.7%	97.7%	52.9%	93.7%	94.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	99.7%	96.8%	60.5%	—	86.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	99.7%	98.4%	54.7%	99.1%	92.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	100.0%	99.7%	94.2%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	93%	87.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	85.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	84.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	83.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 08 · 15:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗