KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

47%

42%

30%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

EPSNO 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.45u · EPS −59.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	57.0%	20.2%	41.1%	33.9%	39.9%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	57.0%	20.2%	41.1%	33.9%	39.9%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	57.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	39.9%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	57.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	39.9%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	57.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	39.9%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	57.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	39.9%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	42.1%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	42.1%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	26.9%	33.5%	42.1%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	26.9%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	51.0%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	28.1%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	47.3%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	47.3%	30.5%	42.1%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	60.9%	20.2%	47.3%	30.5%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	87.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	86.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 10 · 15:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗