KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

47%

42%

30%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

EPSNO 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.45u · EPS −59.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	11.3%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	0.0%	10.5%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	0.7%	0.6%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	—	3.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	1.4%	0.0%	—	8.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	5.8%	—	19.5%	—	7.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	22.6%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	62.9%	0.3%	9.4%	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	31.8%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	17.2%	15.4%	6.3%	—	10.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	46.2%	26.9%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	46.1%	22.5%	2.1%	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	41.1%	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	52.1%	55.1%	1.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	24.5%	41.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	22.1%	38.2%	5.3%	—	23.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	37.8%	47.8%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	52.3%	45.4%	3.8%	44.2%	18.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	30.4%	40.5%	2.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	53.7%	45.0%	3.7%	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	59.0%	48.7%	2.2%	—	25.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	56.7%	54.0%	2.4%	23.0%	17.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	77.9%	54.2%	1.5%	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	83.7%	57.2%	4.0%	38.6%	42.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	80.8%	48.5%	5.1%	—	21.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	78.6%	56.3%	3.1%	65.4%	30.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	92.1%	75.9%	30.9%	—	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	87.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	86.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 10 · 15:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗