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KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
>99%
EPS
96%
AIFS
93%
WN2
78%
ICON
59%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 79.3¢Risks 79.30u
VS
ICONNO 20.7¢Risks 20.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.70u · ICON −20.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00AIFS Single: 92.4% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00ICON: 58.6% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0010-06 04:0710-06 10:5410-06 14:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:0099.9%94.1%97.1%100.0%37.9%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:0099.9%94.1%97.1%100.0%37.9%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:0099.0%94.1%99.3%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:0099.0%94.1%99.3%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:0099.0%94.1%99.3%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:0099.0%94.1%99.3%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:0099.0%94.1%99.3%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:0099.0%96.4%78.0%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:0099.0%96.4%78.0%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:0099.0%96.4%78.0%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:0092.4%96.4%78.0%100.0%58.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0092.7%96.4%78.0%100.0%58.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES>99%83.2°F6.4°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble96%76.9°F10.2°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
AIFS Single93%66.2°F5.3°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 278%62.0°F4.5°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
ICON59%60.0°F6.9°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
National Blend57%61.0°F13.2°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%59.0°F5.8°F2026-10-06 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗