KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

93%

78%

59%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 79.3¢Risks 79.30u

ICONNO 20.7¢Risks 20.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.70u · ICON −20.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	95.3%	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	98.6%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	99.2%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	4.2%	2.1%	—	—	84.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	10.2%	50.0%	1.7%	—	79.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	37.1%	56.6%	8.4%	—	93.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	30.3%	—	100.0%	—	90.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	98.9%	11.9%	99.2%	—	64.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	42.5%	89.5%	98.5%	—	91.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	98.3%	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	79.8%	99.9%	98.9%	—	99.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	72.1%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.6%	100.0%	99.5%	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	89.1%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	82.3%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.7%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	83.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	76.9°F	10.2°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	66.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	60.0°F	6.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	61.0°F	13.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗