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KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
>99%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
93%
EPS
91%
ICON
30%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 65.2¢Risks 65.20u
VS
ICONNO 34.8¢Risks 34.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.80u · ICON −34.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.4% · 2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:0010-05 17:3510-05 22:5110-06 03:22
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:0099.6%91.2%96.0%100.0%20.6%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:0099.6%91.2%96.0%100.0%20.6%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:0099.6%91.2%96.0%100.0%20.6%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:0099.5%91.2%96.0%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:0099.5%91.2%96.0%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:0099.5%91.2%96.0%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:0099.5%91.2%96.0%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:0099.5%91.2%96.0%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:0099.5%91.4%93.1%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:0099.5%91.4%93.1%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:0099.5%91.4%93.1%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:0099.8%91.4%93.1%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:0099.8%91.4%93.1%100.0%30.4%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:0099.8%91.4%93.1%100.0%30.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES>99%83.2°F6.4°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
AIFS Single>99%76.5°F5.6°F2026-10-05 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 293%67.8°F4.9°F2026-10-05 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble91%74.0°F9.9°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
National Blend51%61.0°F14.2°F2026-10-05 06:00Pending
ICON30%55.5°F9.7°F2026-10-05 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 05 · 17:35 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗