KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

93%

91%

30%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.2¢Risks 65.20u

ICONNO 34.8¢Risks 34.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.80u · ICON −34.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	92.1%	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	98.1%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	1.9%	0.9%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	5.2%	36.2%	0.7%	—	68.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	24.3%	42.0%	4.1%	—	88.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	—	99.9%	—	82.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	97.1%	5.7%	97.8%	—	49.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	27.2%	79.9%	96.1%	—	82.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	95.5%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	65.4%	99.7%	96.8%	—	97.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	55.4%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	98.4%	100.0%	98.1%	—	99.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	77.6%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	67.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	99.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.6%	99.9%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.7%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	83.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	76.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	67.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	74.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	61.0°F	14.2°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	55.5°F	9.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 05 · 17:35 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗