KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 08 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

90%

88%

69%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.3¢Risks 84.30u

ICONNO 15.7¢Risks 15.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +15.70u · ICON −15.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T15:29:30+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	54.4%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	54.4%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	54.4%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	81.3%	93.4%	43.9%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	81.3%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	81.3%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	81.3%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	81.3%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	33.2%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	33.2%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	33.2%	93.6%	54.4%	88.4%	36.4%
2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00	46.7%	99.3%	35.5%	92.9%	40.5%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	46.7%	99.3%	35.5%	92.9%	40.5%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	46.7%	99.3%	35.5%	92.9%	40.5%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	46.7%	99.3%	90.1%	92.9%	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	46.7%	99.3%	90.1%	92.9%	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	46.7%	99.3%	90.1%	92.9%	40.5%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	88.4%	99.3%	90.1%	100.0%	68.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	88.4%	99.3%	90.1%	100.0%	68.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	88.4%	99.3%	90.1%	100.0%	68.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	88.4%	99.3%	90.1%	100.0%	68.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	88.4%	99.3%	90.1%	100.0%	68.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	67.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	63.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	62.0°F	12.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗