KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 08 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

90%

88%

69%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.3¢Risks 84.30u

ICONNO 15.7¢Risks 15.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +15.70u · ICON −15.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	90.0%	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	95.9%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	97.3%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	2.9%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	1.3%	0.5%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	3.6%	29.8%	0.4%	—	61.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	18.9%	35.0%	2.7%	—	83.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	13.8%	—	99.8%	—	76.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	95.5%	3.8%	96.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	20.7%	73.5%	93.9%	—	76.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	93.0%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	57.0%	99.4%	94.8%	—	96.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	46.4%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	97.2%	100.0%	96.8%	—	98.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	69.9%	100.0%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	57.7%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.5%	99.8%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.5%	99.9%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	97.5%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	98.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	67.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	63.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	62.0°F	12.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗