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KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
AIFS
95%
HRES
80%
WN2
62%
ICON
48%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 74.0¢Risks 73.95u
VS
ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 26.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.05u · ICON −26.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:0010-09 16:1310-09 22:1410-10 03:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:0062.7%99.9%48.9%72.0%0.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:0062.7%99.9%48.9%72.0%0.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:0062.7%99.9%61.7%72.0%0.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:0062.7%99.9%61.7%72.0%0.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:0062.7%99.9%61.7%72.0%0.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:0065.3%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:0094.8%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:0094.8%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:0094.8%99.9%61.7%80.2%48.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%82.1°F3.1°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
AIFS Single95%79.5°F4.3°F2026-10-09 18:00Pending
IFS HRES80%76.3°F4.5°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%73.5°F3.4°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%73.0°F3.9°F2026-10-09 15:00Pending
ICON48%72.3°F4.0°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
National Blend47%72.0°F7.8°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 16:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗