KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

80%

62%

48%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 26.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.05u · ICON −26.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	42.6%	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	52.4%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	57.5%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.1%	—	76.1%	—	8.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	30.9%	0.0%	35.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.7%	22.5%	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.0%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	52.6%	21.4%	—	26.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	0.5%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	26.6%	89.0%	24.4%	—	35.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	1.8%	99.6%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.6%	61.5%	65.2%	—	43.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	21.1%	57.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	40.8%	61.2%	71.5%	—	56.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	16.9%	66.5%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	50.0%	61.8%	96.7%	—	98.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	43.3%	99.1%	19.0%	—	99.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	96.2%	99.0%	98.7%	—	99.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	91.3%	94.5%	99.4%	—	99.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	99.4%	99.4%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	98.6%	99.8%	93.2%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	99.1%	97.2%	83.5%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	99.9%	100.0%	76.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	99.9%	100.0%	85.4%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	100.0%	100.0%	90.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	100.0%	100.0%	92.9%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	100.0%	100.0%	98.7%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	79.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	76.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	73.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
ICON	48%	72.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 16:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗